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THE EFFECT OF POPULATION FACTORS ON AGGREGATE ENERGY USE AND CARBON EMISSION IN NIGERIA

Population factors are the dynamics that affect economic growth which comprises population growth, mortality, fertility and age-structural change as well as urban growth/urbanization. Owing to these, human population is increasingly affecting global climate through energy consumption. Globally, among several pollutants contributing to climate change, carbon (CO) emissions account for more than 75% of greenhouse gas emissions with about 80% of it generated by the energy sector. However, this study fills the gap in the literature of the relationship among economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emissions by examining the effect of population factors on energy use and carbon emissions in Nigeria. This is done by assessing the main evidence for the effects of population change on emissions driving climate change, mainly focused on carbon from the energy system. It is on this premise that the study examines differential impact of population factors on energy use and carbon emission using an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) developed by Pesaran, Shin and Smith, (2001) by using data set comprising, aggregate energy consumption, and carbon emission and population variables in Nigeria for the period 1980-2013. The study has the following variables carbon emission, energy use, urban population, population density, working population, real gross domestic product. The results show that population factors have more significant effect on energy use and carbon emission than economic growth. Energy consumption and economic growth puts some essential policy implications on the economy of Nigeria. The insignificance of output on energy consumption and carbon emission leads us to draw a conclusion that production activities do account for the increasing energy use and carbon emission rather population factors account for the increasing energy use. This suggests that society increases its per capita energy use when it increases in population size (and decreases its energy use per capita when its population falls). The results of this study suggest that the role of family planning is sensible environmentally because it’s another effective means of regulating birth. Also, the study suggest that alternative source of energy should be developed to reduce the risk posed by use of hydrocarbon as well as fuel environmental education should be encouraged.

With the rapid population growth and urban development in Nigeria, it becomes necessary to examine their link with energy consumption. This is because inadequate supply of energy restricts socio-economic activities and adversely affects the quality of life. When examined from the other way round, increased energy consumption leads to improvement in standards of living, manifested in increased food production, increased industrial output, the provision of efficient transportation, adequate shelter, healthcare and other human services (Oyedepo, 2013). This implies that the efficient exploitation and development of a nation’s energy resources is of great importance to the progress and well-being of the populace and the overall growth of the economy, (Akpan and Akpan 2012). Thus, inadequate development and inefficient management of the energy sector has resulted in a serious demand-supply gap experienced in the country. Notably among them is the demand-supply gap in the electricity sector. Electricity is one of the most demanded energy sources in the country, but its supply has been very erratic due to mainly poor management and the issue of population size of the country. 

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