CHAPTER
ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1
BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY
Oil
is a major source of energy in Nigeria and the world in general. Oil being the
mainstay of the Nigerian economy plays a vital role in shaping the economic and
political destiny of the country. Although Nigeria’s oil industry was founded
at the beginning of the century, it was not until the end of the Nigeria civil
war (1967 - 1970) that the oil industry began to play a prominent role in the
economic life of the country (Fashola, 1999).
Oil
abundance, and specifically oil dependence has often been associated with poor
growth, poverty and underdevelopment. Nigeria is considered to be a classic
example of the contradiction between natural resource abundance and perverse
economic development outcomes (or the paradox of plenty). It is Africa’s
highest oil exporter, and the world’s tenth largest oil producing country. It
has realized over US$ 600 billion in oil revenues since 1960, a figure greater
than the resources used by the Marshall Plan in rebuilding Europe after World
War II, and is currently the 8th highest net oil exporter in the world.
Nigeria’s economy is heavily dependent on natural resources: oil and gas
constitutes 98% of total exports, 80% of government revenues and around 20% of
GDP (CBN, 2010). In spite of the enormous economic potentials in Nigeria, it
has largely failed to live up to the ambitious growth projections that followed
the first oil boom in the 1970s.
Also,
social indicators have displayed no specific tendency towards improvement such
that in 2010, Nigeria was ranked 142nd out of 169 countries by the United
Nations Human Development Index. Furthermore, up to 70% of Nigerians are
considered to be ‘poor’ – subsisting below the national poverty line (NBS,
2012).
It
thus goes without saying that Nigeria has evidently grappled with the paradox
of plenty. The negative impacts of abundant oil revenue from oil abundance
include; a decline in the competitiveness of other economic sectors (caused by
appreciation of the real exchange rate), volatility of revenues from the
natural resource sector due to exposure to global commodity market swings,
government mismanagement of oil revenues, weak, ineffectual and corrupt institutions.
In addition, this massive inflow of revenue fuels greed and jostling for
resources, both of which serve as the bedrock for crises, conflicts and
violence that have come to epitomise most resource-rich countries (Nigeria
inclusive). However, the deleterious economic effects embedded in the foregoing
perverse outcomes have been argued to be muted within the ambit of well
functioning institutions and their accompanying structures and mechanisms.
Along
this line of thought, the seminal work of Rodrik (1999a,b, 2002) on the role of
institutions in economic growth and development has contributed to the
recognition of the role played by the quality of domestic institutions in
shaping policy responses to exogenous shocks (including oil windfalls), and the
redistribution of wealth to reduce poverty and drive economic growth.1 In an
application of this important thesis to Nigeria, the well-known study by
Sala-i-Martin and Subramanian (2003) introduces a measure of ‘institutional
quality’ – defined as the mortality rates of colonial settlers, and the
fraction of the population speaking English and other European languages –
within an Instrumental Variable model of a cross-country econometric analysis,
to arrive at the conclusion that crude oil has a negative and non-linear impact
on growth in Nigeria, through the deleterious impact on domestic institutions.
Macroeconomic performance refers to an assessment of how well a country is
doing in reaching key objectives of government policy. The main aim of policy is
usually an improvement in the real standard of living for their population. The
effect of the abundant oil revenue has not been felt in the standard of living
of Nigerians.
1.2
STATEMENT OF THE PROBLEM
There
is already a plethora of academic literature on the issues associated with oil
revenue and macro-economic performance in resource-rich countries. Existing
studies on Nigeria’s experience with oil revenue have also tackled the
macroeconomic implications, (Subramanian and Sala-i-Martin 2003). This study, however,
aims to provide an analysis of oil revenue and macroeconomic performance in
Nigeria. This study is going to proffer suggestions to policymakers, to help in
the design of appropriate policies to manage appropriately future oil revenue
that will be generated. While the extant studies on the subject with specific
focus on Nigeria have hinged on the macroeconomic implication of oil revenue,
the institutional setting has scarcely ever been given any attention.
1.3
OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
The
following are the objectives of this study:
To
examine the effect of oil revenue on macroeconomic performance in Nigeria.
To
examine the level of economic development in Nigeria.
To
examine the relationship between oil revenue and macroeconomic performance
1.4 RESEARCH
QUESTIONS
What
are the effects of oil revenue on macroeconomic performance in Nigeria?
What
is the level of economic development in Nigeria?
What
is the relationship between oil revenue and macroeconomic performance
1.5
HYPOTHESIS
HO:
There is no significant relationship between oil revenue and macroeconomic
performance in Nigeria.
HA:
There is significant relationship between oil revenue and macroeconomic
performance in Nigeria.
1.6
SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
The
following are the significance of this study:
The
outcome of this study will enlighten the government of Nigeria, the policy
makers and the general public on the influence of oil revenue on macroeconomic
performance in Nigeria with a view of understanding better how to manage the
revenue generated from abundant oil in Nigeria for rapid and sustainable
development of the country.
This
research will also serve as a resource base to other scholars and researchers
interested in carrying out further research in this field subsequently, if
applied will go to an extent to provide new explanation to the topic.
1.7
SCOPE/LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
This
study on the analysis of oil revenue and macroeconomic performance in Nigeria
will cover the overview of money generated from crude oil in Nigeria and its
effect on the economy of the nation. It will also cover how the government of
Nigeria has allocated and managed resources generated from oil since the
beginning of oil exploration and production in Nigeria.
LIMITATION
OF STUDY
Financial
constraint- Insufficient fund tends to impede the efficiency of the researcher
in sourcing for the relevant materials, literature or information and in the
process of data collection (internet, questionnaire and interview).
Time
constraint- The researcher will simultaneously engage in this study with other
academic work. This consequently will cut down on the time devoted for the
research work.
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